[Lefort]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think you are vastly vastly ahead of his range here, and with these stacks, i think a shove is far preferable to "seeing what falls on the turn"

i think it's a great two-way bet in that he folds a couple worse hands like better tens, T8, JT, QT quite often. but i think far more often he's priced in to call his 15 outer hand when he would have actually c/f had he missed on the river. i like a shove much much much more than a call, i think the only question is between shove and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused, it sounds like you are saying its a good thing he is priced in to call and will make a +ev call?

[/ QUOTE ]

The size of the pot makes it +EV for both players to get it in. But we're still 65%+ to win and thus want to get the chips in.

As for the hand, I don't think he folds QT/JT but I'm also not totally convinced he fires the turn again with those hands. I like a push, but don't hate a fold.