[soon2bepro]

I'd really like it if David could answer this question, but I'd appretiate other opinions aswell.

I'm sorry if this is too long. I think I can express myself better this way.

My question is, over many many played hands, how do you really tell if you've just gotten a huge streak or if the numbers more or less suggest your level of advantage/disadvantage over the field?

I understand that the bigger the sample, the more it should tend to approach you real numbers, but my question is not so much about what number of hands should determine this, but something else.

Here's my current situation that I'll use as an example.

I am much more of a theoretical person than a "feeling" one, for poker and mostly everything else, so you can trust that what I'm saying is a pretty objective analysis of the situation.

I've been a winning player in both limit and no limit hold'em for about a year, say from mid 2005 to mid 2006 (I was a winner from the moment I started playing for real money, which was after reading several poker books). But from then until now I've been losing at about 4 big blinds/100 hands in NL cash over 125k hands, whereas I was winning twice that much last year over 70khands (I played a lot of limit poker back then, that's why my NL sample is smaller for that period).

Through the last year, I've continued to extend my skill and understanding of poker. And I definitely consider myself a much better player than I was a year ago.

I understand the games I'm playing, and I understand the players. I'm pretty certain they're so bad on average, I could play on auto pilot and still beat them with ease. But the thing is that I just keep losing.

A pot here, a pot there. A huge load of bad beats, although I really couldn't say how large given the huge sample. It's gotten to the point that when I sit to play I feel I'm losing money, and that I just need to see it happen to believe it.

My poker playing friends (all consistent winners, some at high stakes) don't understand this either. Some of them say they see some flaws in my game, but nothing this big.

Now my question is, if everything else tells you it's just bad luck, does the large sample of hands make a big difference? How much so?

I have no reason to believe there is cheating going on (I play at partypoker), and I don't want to sound superstitious, because I'm not, but whenever I play in another account or another site, I seem to win. Even in homegames with my tough friends (who are really not so tough playing live for small money, to be honest). It's just that I play mostly in this account and this site because I calculate that it has the highest profitability.

As an aside, I'll ask: What would you suggest I do? Should I keep playing here as long as my bankroll is healthy enough? Should I seriously consider re-evaluating my whole game? Should I move to another site or account solely on the extremely unlikely possibility that this may have something to do with it?