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Old 01-30-2006, 07:50 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Card Flippin Donkey
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Default Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand

I'd push, although its probably EV-.

In the worst case scenario, which I believe is the most likely scenario, villain has QQ++,AK. You are calling 29K to win 39K (because all the chips are going in no matter what you do) and need to be 42% in the hand. Due to the overlay the pot is right to call. I doubt that villain is out of line, because his raise does not let him escape from the hand, and he's willing to give you odds to take a flop, which suggests the higher and less likely end of his range (AA-KK). Villain does not have AQ, so the addition of pairs (jj--) does not alter the numbers.

Should hero take a fair bet for 1/2 his stack?

Hero is along way from the money so not an issue.

Hero's image will be hurt if he folds, especially the legitimacy of his MP/LP opens. It depends how important this is to your game. Hero will still have a workable stack at 56K (~average) and will come back fresh in the morning with 45XBB. The laydown of AKs might have a psychological impact on hero over the 24 hour period.

Hero's image will be helped if he wins. Nothing like showing down AKs a couple times. 100K is going to be pretty big stack well into the 2nd day. Hero might have additional EV if he plays a big stack well. Hero will be feeling pretty good at the end of the day and have no regrets.

If hero calls and loses, then hero will feel bad about his call, but his chances of winning the tournament are so small that it's less important how he feels. He still has some game left in his stack.
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