BBV seems the most appropriate place to put this semi-whine post, but I'm curious if anyone can interpret anything out of my graph/pt stats or if I'm just suffering from massive variance. I started on stars on Sept 18 with about 320$ and ran(played?) really well for about 21k hands, beating it at 8.7BB/100. Stats:
I'm really thinking this must have simply been a massive heater and I probably suck, in retrospect. Then I moved up with about 30 buyins and got creamed beyond belief in a short period of just 5k hands(lost about 10 buyins), I know this part was variance, my won at showdown was like 38 over these 5k hands. So naturally I moved down with my remaining 450 or so and proceeded to get destroyed at 10nl, which I'd just been beating very convincingly for a decently sized sample. The last 20k hands here have been absolutely awful and I've donked off like 15 buyins. Stats:
As you probably noticed, I tightened up significantly after about 10k hands of losing from 24/20 to like 16/13, these stats are a combination of playing these two styles I suppose. What's really bothering me is the won when saw flop stat as well as my EV graph. Until the last 20k hands, my green line was usually pretty far above my blue line, at all stakes not just nl10. I was winning alot without showdown. The last 20k though, I've been in the negative for non showdowns, my showdown winnings and Sklansky bucks keep going up but my total winnings are plumetting. So obviously I was just getting less respect on my c-bets, so I figured the thing to do would be tighten up. It's only been 10k hands playing this super-nitty style, but I don't think it's helping my non-showdown winnings.
Could this be just variance? Is it even possible to run bad for 20k hands considering how fishy 10nl is? Or is there probably some leak I'm not seeing which is causing me to spew chips in every direction? Also, I can't help but notice that almost everyone else in the stats thread has way lower AFs then me, am I just playing a really high variance style?
ahhh [censored] I probably shouldn't even expect a serious answer, worth asking anyway though!