Re: Suspected cheating on AP
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Cit,
The infinite river agression is a giant clue imo. For me, that was the "holy [censored] this is real" stat.
He never, ever, ever, calls on the river. Raise or fold.
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It's pretty easy to do a statistical analysis of this too.
Basically we just test the hypothesis that villain in this case is really not cheating, he's just running really weird hot. Assume that normally he has a river AF of 4, still really agro but at least reasonable. This means that 20% of the time he doesn't fold, he calls. Let's say he saw the river and bet or raised 30 times in a row excluding folds. The likelihood of this happening to someone who really calls 20% is .8^30 or .0012. If he calls once over that span it's 30*.2*.8^29. More then 2 is more complicated. Off the top of my head, I believe it's:
(sample size)!/((times he called)!*(times he raised/bet)!)(probability of a call)^number of calls*(probability of bet/raise)^number of bets/raises.
Note that "!" indicates a factorial. 1! = 1 2! = 2*1 3!=3*2*1 and so on. 30! may seem hard to deal with but in this case it's always divided by other factorials. For example 30!/28! is just 30*29.
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