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Old 09-04-2007, 02:00 PM
BobboFitos BobboFitos is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Somerville
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Default Re: Hand Analysis Question - theoretical hand

This is a shove under normal circumstances, under your criteria, it's a flop fold.

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Board: Qs 8c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.761% 35.27% 02.49% 7333 517.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 62.239% 59.75% 02.49% 12422 517.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


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Technically we're putting in 82bbs to win ~204bbs, so before our flop action given what you say we need 40.2% equity, which against that range we do not.

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It would appear that villain can call a push profitably with AK (7 outs/30% equity against my KK) but I assume he will fold a decent % of the time because his call is very tight for him against our range (JJ+) even though he fairs better against our actual hand.


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If you think anyone pots/folds this with AK, you're mistaken. He will be getting 32:204 (!!!) requiring LESS then 16% equity. Even against the tightest of ranges:
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qs 8c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.160% 18.87% 00.29% 26904 411.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 80.840% 80.55% 00.29% 114834 411.00 { JJ+ }


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Villain is pot committed. So, no, villain wont ever bet/fold here, unless they misclick.
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