[franknagaijr]

If you have a situation where you are facing a bet on the turn with money behind, and you will only put further money in on the river if you hit your nut outs, it seems like calculating EV is as follows:

1) Size of pot on river not including any additional money hero puts in if villain can be assumed to put in additional money * chance of hero hitting outs * probability that V will put in further money on river
2) Size of pot on turn including our call * chance of hero hitting outs * probability V will put in no additional money if hero hits
1 + 2 = Implied EV of calling the turn with no intention of bluffing?

But now if we include a river bluff component where we will sometimes bet the river with a missed draw, so we actually will sometimes lose the river bet, what should that math look like? I imagine we've got to do a fancy matrix including the percent chance that we will bluff, and calculate negative EVs on those points in the matrix where hero bluffs the river and villain calls?

If there's a nice thread that walks through this stuff, please let me know what to search on, or throw me a link?

Thanks