Re: Belmont Stakes
Tomlinson turf numbers are nice, though I personally believe the wet numbers lag far behind the turf numbers, and the distance numbers are nearly useless.
And none of the numbers should ever be used to eliminate horses. Time and again, you will see superb grass horses with mediocre (or worse) turf numbers. The way numbers should be used is as an inclination in the direction the number suggests. To use turf numbers, as an example, I will only use them if it's the horse's first or second try on the grass, and only if I am getting 8/1 or more. I greatly prefer that there be only one set of top tomlinson numbers, say above 300, and also that there are no horses in the race that have established good turf form.
An application I just love is this: a maiden has poor dirt form, and has been running in maiden claiming races, and looking horrible; in fact the worse, the better! He now goes back to MSW and onto the turf for the first time and has a Tomlinson turf number of 300 or more. He MAY be just now getting to run on the surface he will love. He also may not run a jump, which is why you want good odds when you use these numbers.
The only thing I do resembling elimination is this: if the sire is a well known turf sire, (Cozzene, etc) and the horse has top turf numbers but has run at least twice on the grass with poor form, I will generally toss these, as if they were going to be good, they'd have shown something by now. And people will still be betting on the famous turf sire.
Frankly, I see no profitable way to use Tomlinson numbers on the Belmont Stakes.
Just my $.02 worth...
bill c
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