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The hurricane thing is dumb. Just because I can't predict whether it'll rain over your house next Tuesday doesn't mean I can't predict the effects of increasing water vapor concentration on Mars. Some things are physically well understood, others are not.
And the hurricane models are probability models and their failure doesn't even reach statistical significance by the looks of it. Hurricanes are highly chaotic systems whose formation can never be more than a probability model, whereas the CO2-heat retention link is very simple and well observed physics.
I have a question for Wacki though. Since we all gamble...what odds would you give me on temperatures increasing by at least 2 degrees within 50 years?
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Nice post and one I've tried to make but didn't do very well when it comes to laymen terms (I merely talked about spatial resolution and designed purpose). As for your question do you mean 2 degrees C or F? And from with starting point today? I'm not familiar with 50 year projections only 100 year and beyond so I'd have to do a little reading.
So much depends on the human element as well. Many people believe the next presidential term is going to be so critical. Global economy, research initiatives, wars and peak oil are all going to be huge wild cards. There is a book I'm extremely eager to read and has gotten excellent reviews in Nature and Realclimate:
http://www.amazon.com/Six-Degrees-Future...2656&sr=8-3
This layman friendly review of 500 journal articles should be an excellent guide to understand how bad this situation might get.