Re: Inducing a bluff
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Commerce 40/80. Game is playing very very tight and it's not that great, but we're about to break (and unbeknownst to me I'm about to move to an awesome game for the last 2 hours of the night).
Folded to me in the CO, I open AQ. SB calls, BB folds.
Flop 855. Check, I bet, he calls.
Turn A. He checks, I check?
(Plan is for him to bet the river and I raise any card that isn't an 8, T, or J.)
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If you don't think he has anything, why raise the river? If you think he has a 5, why raise the river? If you think he has an ace, why not bet the turn?
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if we check behind and raise most rivers:
if he has an ace, we make the same (unless villain would cr, but we lose less if he has AK)
if he has KQ, or something, we gain 1 bet from his bluff
if he has a five, we may lose less, because we might have to calldown a turn CR and payoff river, whereas we should be able to fold to a river 3bet methinks
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