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Old 11-22-2007, 11:35 AM
elindauer elindauer is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: analyzing hand ranges
Posts: 2,966
Default Re: interesting turn decision

I have you ahead of 72% of villain's range. You hold one of the stronger hands in your range. Given that, you can certainly raise from a game theory POV and not be exploited.

That only leaves a question of whether you can exploit your opponents by just calling. Hmm... with the 3rd guy in there, you tend to want to raise to make him pay to draw out. It sure looks like you have him beaten and most likely he's drawing to a straight.

On the other hand, raising exposes you to a 3-bet from both the first player and the 3rd player (who could easily be on a slowplay with a set or have just turned two pair).

Let's check pokerstove... vs 1st villain's range, you actually only hold a slight equity edge, having only 54% equity. Given that you are offering 2:1, you probably would prefer to just call.

How bad is it to just call if the 3rd player is still drawing? Well, maybe not that bad. Some of his outs also make you a flush, and given that he acts after you he may end up losing 3 big bets. Further, when you are ahead you have to dodge straight outs anyways... the 1st player and 3rd player may share the same draw, in which case you are happy to let the 3rd player in!

So, in conclussion, it seems really close either way. I can't find enough information to make a clear case for either side. I think though that you probably do better to just call.

good luck.
Eric
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