[The once and future king]

Hmm

One thing I need to understand that I dont is how the above post answers my question in any way.

The question is quite clear.

How negative must be the contextual reason given for a rate cut be to overcome the upside derived from a rate cut?

Looking at recent price action in relation to announcements from the fed, the negative context would have to be total catastrophe to overcome the upside.

Bottom line is that I think the disconnect between the negative context and the consequent (often extreme) upward price action e.g bad=good demonstrates that the markets are irrational.

As for Bias, well I have no investment intellectually and emotionally either way. I dont care what is right, I do care at reaching conclusions that are right whatever they may be.