[Buzz]

Giant Fan - I don't know what "Villain runs about 32/11" means.

Bad river card for you - and that after a bad turn card! However, you only have to win half the pot one time out of four for the river call to be a good call. Plus by calling, you get to see what Villain is so proud of. So the river call definitely seems good.

And I like your reasoning for defending your blind. Re-raising would be a stronger defense, but you don't have much of a starting hand and you're going to be out of position.

And betting the flop seems reasonable.

So if you did anything wrong, I think it must have been on the turn.

I think you can safely assume that when Villain bets the turn he will also bet the river. And you can see that once you call the turn, you also will call the river.

Next time you're facing a bet on the turn against this guy (or anyone, heads-up), mentally double your cost and try to estimate how much you'll actually win when you win half the pot starting with the turn bet. (It's one half of what the pot was after the flop - and in this case you're risking an equal amount if you call the next two bets).

I'm not sure if that made sense to you. Basically henceforth you and Villan will contribute an equal amount, and that amount will be 4 small bets each for the last two betting rounds. If you win half, you'll get that back plus you'll win half of what the pot is after the flop. But if you get scooped, it will cost you 4 small bets.

Starting with the third betting round, you're risking 4 small bets to possibly win half of what was in the pot after the flop when you basically play for half the pot. See it?

Use chips if you don't immediately see it, one chip for each small bet and two chips for each big bet. Make the four chips it will cost you to call it down after the turn a different color to see your pot odds more clearly.

Then you compare them to your hand odds. but since you don't know what cards Villain holds in this case, it's very hard to know what your hand odds are.

When you see that 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], do you think you'll win half the pot half the time? What is your gut feeling? Try to be objective.

I think it's close. As simulated against random hands, Hero is ahead by about 57 to 43 after the turn. So if Villain has random cards, then you're probably ahead.

However Villain is betting as though having some sort of fit - and we should presume Villain has better than a random hand. If we just give Villain the ace of clubs plus three random cards, Villain becomes a 56 to 44 favorite (and the ace of hearts or spades is even better for Villain).

Seems fair to give Villain an ace, if he's not bluffing, considering the betting. Don't you agree? (Or even if Villain doesn't have a great fit, considering your own cards, if Villain simply has an ace he has an advantage after the turn).

When you see that 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], do you think you'll win half the pot half the time?

I think although it's close, Villain is not playing random cards often enough after the turn (when he bets the turn) that you usually are too far behind after the turn to call two more bets.

Therefore, calling on the turn is a poor play in this particular case.

Buzz