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Old 08-14-2006, 03:26 AM
VickreyAuction VickreyAuction is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
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Posts: 2,162
Default Re: So here\'s a question (LC?)

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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Plays 96% of hands, how can he win 60% of showdowns? I thought that looked so weird. Sure, 170 hands, but I would figure that number would converge very quickly for someone who plays every hand.

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You do not understand variance or convergence. Go play more. That's how we all know this is nonsense and you don't.

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Ay yi yi, I understand variance and convergence, I was just wondering what number of hands it would take for something like a wtsd/w$sd combination with a vpip of 96% to reach a believable level. I mean obviously it's not sustainable, but I'd be shocked if it didn't go away after 10k hands even. 50k for a player that bad seems huge.

I know a poor player can be a winner over a large number of hands. But I was thinking that this player was SO bad that his true winrate couldn't be as high as it is for even a relatively small sample.

The ? was a typo. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]