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Old 11-03-2007, 11:45 PM
gehrig gehrig is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: CHICAGO
Posts: 3,950
Default Re: Fulltilt froze my account with 47 grand in it

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Pokergirl z
Pre-flop played %
65

grego777
Pre-flop played %
66

Daurgman
Pre-flop played %
68

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It's very unlikely that these stats in particular came from the same player/bot. If the player's true stat is 65, then after 62K hands they will be within that ~.4 of the 65 95% of the time. It's about a one in ten million event that this player would have a 66 stat. It's virtually impossible for the stat to be 68 over the samples discussed. Of course, this type of analysis assumes things that may not be true such as static game conditions/inability of the bot to adjust. It also assumes that MH or FT didn't round 65.4 to 65 and 65.6 to 66. Even so, I felt it necessary to point out that appearances here maybe deceiving and that it's possible to draw the opposite conclusion from the data then is obvious from just looking at it.

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Leader,

It seems as if this new batch of bots learned from their old mistakes and are taking precautions. It's well known now that the sites (and many concerned players too) are making stat comparisons as a way of identifying potential bots.

It would be very easy to make the bot configurable so that stats don't converge exactly, even though the underlying logic is essentially the same. Think, for example, of making small adjustments to stealing and defending ranges that will have very little impact on your bottom line.

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theres three groups of players

1) the old school bots which were really obvious to spot and all got banned a long time ago except daurgman
2) the new bots which are trickier to find and seem to play a little different from the old bots
3) the accounts used by the bot maker/buyer who is a competant but not very good player.

i dont think the bots ever ran on the third group

theres a stat profile for each group and all the accused accounts fit in smugly into one of the three. pretty much nobody else has a stat profile that looks much like those three
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