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Old 11-23-2005, 05:53 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,254
Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

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Again, I am responding before seeing other responses...

1) I now read BB as an excellent player. This is a great bet designed to get us to think. He either a) already has a made hand, b) is on a draw, or c) is on a complete bluff. He is giving us pot odds to draw to anything --- overcards, a draw ourselves, whatever, so he wants a call. He is not afraid of us drawing out, so I doubt he has top pair, a set, or two pair (of course, he could be dumber than he appears). He either already has a made straight or has a good draw or is setting up a pure bluff on the turn. If we call this bet, he WILL bet the turn (if it is a semi-bluff he MIGHT check the turn and hope for a free card) trying to make us make a decision whether to pot-commit ourselves. If we re-re-raise, he can drop weak draws or pure bluffs and take all our chips if he does have the straight. If I call and he's on a pure bluff, I can get HIM to blow off chips on the next card, whereas if I re-re-raise I'll lose him. If he is on a semibluff, there are so many possible cards that can beat me I can't know for sure on the next card whether he is betting because he made his hand or is betting to scare me away (however I will have position). If he has the straight and I reraise all-in, he WILL call me but at least I have 4 outs twice to make the boat. This is a tough call. Due to the nature of survival in tournaments I can still accumulate chips if I reraise all-in and he folds, and if he calls my all-in bet on a decent draw, say a flush draw with overcards where he THINKS he has more outs than he does, then I am significantly +EV.

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Now, a clever BB would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. Hero is not a great fool, so can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But BB must have known Hero was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so he can clearly not choose the wine in front of me!

-g
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