Bodog DJIA Prop Bet
Bodog current offers the follow prop bet:
Bet On: What will be the Dow Jones Industrial average closing total be on December 31st 2007?
Over 13,600 Points -300
Under 13,600 Points +200
How could the under NOT be +EV? With close to zero analysis, I have to believe that the index, currently at 13,520 has a >33% chance of staying under by the end of the year.
For a reference point, the last contract for DJIA to be over 13,750 on 12/31 on InTrade sold for 45.5, or roughly +120. The last contract for over 13,500 sold for 55, or -122. According to these odds, the 50/50 mark is probably around 13,625 (this is a very rough estimate - do the math to get a precise #). With that in mind, I love under 13,600 for +200.
If someone wants to run some further analysis, feel free.
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