[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
hypothetical situation -- type of hand happens fairly often.

tenth hand in. i've reraised once oop. he called, i cbet the flop and he folded.

100bb effective
3/6 nl
i have AQ -- no spades. he raises to 18, and i reraise to 60. he calls.

pot (120)
K72 with two spades. i lead for 80. he raises to 200.

i should push this x% of the time. x = ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let x be the percentage of time he needs to fold to show a profit on the push . The probability you win when called may be as low as 12 %(possibly lower) and as high as 24% . I'll use the average of these two numbers as an estimate and assume that you'll win 18% of the time when called . Let's round it up to 20% .

EV(push) = 400*x + (1-x)*[740*0.2 - 460*0.8]

We wish for this equation to be greater than 0 .

After simplifying we get 400x -220*(1-x) >=0
400x + 220x >=220
x>= 35.48%

So if he folds more than 35.48% , then a shove will show a profit .

Remark: If you shove , your opponent will be getting pot odds of 860:340 or ~ 2.52:1 on the call . So with that in mind , your semi bluff may not always work in this case but it only has to be successful a little over a third of the time .