Re: Thrust and Parry
Nate:
Did you consider a reraise PF, or is that insane against this opponent in this situation?
I agree that you will fold to a 3bet. One point: many agressive players will 3bet {JJ, 77-99} here, i think. Especially if your minraise is interpretted as a probe from a similar underpair hand, no?
In those cases you actually had 10 outs. Don't think that changes much, but it's in there.
I remember FoxwoodFiend once weighing in strongly against a minraise bluff in a similar situation because it might lead you to getting blown off a hand that you otherwise would have liked to continue with. It's not clear to me that you want to continue here without raising, but is a call outrageous? Is this TAG likely to make continuation bets here with AQ, AJ, 88, etc, such that you can realistically float and take this away when he checks the turn?
I'm interested in your motives for minraising as opposed to a full raise. It seems to me that the minraise line is bad if he wants to get stubborn with medium pairs. Those are the hands we are targeting here, no?
Do you think opponent is going all the way here with AK, or can he be pushed off that with a full raise or min-raise with follow-up turn bet?
Finally, what do you estimate your chances of actually having the best hand here are? Is AJ or QJ even remotely possible? Did you consider that a K might bring you the best hand if he's holding an underpair?
looking forward to your responses.
matt
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