[manbearpig]

[ QUOTE ]


Remember when we had a big discussion about weighted probabilities? Are you claiming that an acquittal doesnt shift the likelihood AT ALL? Or just that it could never possibly shift the likelihood any meaningful amount? Or what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously it shifts it.

But think of it this way. If you had to make a yes/no decision with only 25% of the total evidence surrounding it, how confident would you be in that decision? What about with 50%? 75%? 99%?

Now what percentage of the total evidence available do you think the DOJ, Bonds lawyers, etc etc have and can use in court? How honest will all the witnesses be? And on and on.

For example, if Conte and Anderson both testify that Bonds had no idea what was going on do we take their word at face value? Some would, some would not.

So if he is acquitted but only say, 25% of the total evidence (obv totally subjective) is admissable that moves the likelihood less than if 75% of the evidence is shown. Agree?