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Old 08-10-2007, 09:06 PM
lastchance lastchance is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
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Posts: 22,856
Default Re: Reads - WW strategy

Here's the point. It's not about what the wolves do (at least not all about what the wolves do). Because some people are wolves, you will see posts that are there which shouldn't be there, and posts which aren't there that should be there. For each game, these are different, and villagers will respond differently, and then wolves will react to those posts, and it's a giant cascade effect which makes each game unique.

For a whole host of insane reasons (starting with the easy/generic reads, and then going very heavily into metagame + player specificness), that final picture has to make sense, it has to fit together like a jigsaw puzzle. A piece can be perfectly natural in another game, but if it doesn't fit in the picture, you need to 180.

Questions to ask:
What should Player X think? (yes, incredibly general)
If Player X is a wolf, how would other villagers react?
If Player X is a villager, how would other villagers react?
If Player X has wolf partners, how would he act to them?
Is there any lynch that should not happen if this player is a villager (see shortline talking about gt1t)?
Does it make sense for Player X to be under heat here if he is a villager? Does it make sense for Player X to be under heat if he is a wolf?
How should the accusations of this game go if Player X is a villager?
How should the NK's go if Player X is a villager?

Reads aren't made in a vacuum. It's not just about knowing how each player posts (though this will obviously make you a good player).

LC's thought process end of d2 (ASXVII):
Why am I getting pushed so hard after lynching an obvious wolf? Does it not make sense that I am a villager? Chuckles died and he cleared me. Shortline and Dustin are both pushing me hard, and I don't think this makes sense (because dustin/shortline don't shove village-me, and I don't think dustin shoves wolf-me). Why doesn't it make sense? What's going on in the thread that's getting shortline AND dustin to shove me?

Thought 1: Shortline is evil.

More thoughts: If shorty was evil, shouldn't me and him have a ridiculously big fight right now? Why am I winning this battle between me and him? Why is shortline getting lynched?

Even more: Gt1t shouldn't be pushing me here, right? I mean, something's off here. Definitely less weird than shorty/dustin, but still...

Final thought: Gt1t is clearing shortline. I am winning the battle with shortline and he will be getting lynched, not me. This shouldn't happen. If gt1t - villager, would this be happening? What about gt1t - wolf?

You see how something little that does not make much sense can be traced backwards to a wolf? I think I'm trying to emphasize that finding wolves is not really about looking at a player and deciding whether or not he's evil.

It's a lot harder to find wolves when you just focus on the what each player by themselves. Stepping back, finding wolves is about thinking about what puzzle pieces look off and what interactions and clears don't happen often.

It's not just about who's posting wolfy. Taken individually, most things wolves do they would do as a villager. Focus on the interesting posts, not just the wolfy players.
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