Re: 20:1 Odds on a Monotone Flop - Prop Bet from Live Game
If you have monotone cards in spades without loss of generality , then the probability the flop comes monotone in spades is :
11C3/50c3=0.008418
monotone in any of the three other suits :
13C3/50c3= 0.0145
Therefore , the probability the flop comes monotone in any of the suits when you hold two suited cards is :
3*13c3/50c3 + 11c3/50c3 = 0.0521
Otherwise , if you don't hold two monotone hold cards , then the probability the flop is monotone is :
2*12c3/50c3 + 2*13c3/50c3 = 0.05163
In the former case , you need to offer him odds of (100-5.21)/5.21=18.19:1 to break even .
For the other case , you need to offer him odds of (100-5.16)/5.16= 18.37:1 which isn't much different .
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