Re: A priori odds against Miami winning by exactly 1 point?
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A home team winning by 1 point figures to occur a little less (3.66% of the time).
The most important number is 3, as home teams win by exactly 3 points roughly 15.14% of the time, and away teams win by exactly 3 points roughly 17.54% of the time.
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Thanks for your help. That makes sense.
In case you were wondering, a friend hedged the Mansion bet with a gap at 1 point. To help him hedge, I bet a few hundred that Miami would not win by exactly 1 point, so he wouldn't lose in that case. We weren't sure what the right odds should be.
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