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Old 10-23-2007, 11:30 PM
blumpkin blumpkin is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Defending my bring-in
Posts: 1,558
Default Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest

I'm surprised that it seems the consensus is to just call down, fearing trips or a goofy straight. While I agree with Howmany that he will often value-bet his two pair hands on the river anyway, it seems like just calling is just too weak. For example, if he checks behind on the river but would have called down all the way if I 3-bet, I could lose up to 2 bets. It also might cause him to be more aggressive on the big streets in later hands if he sees that I won't even 3-bet with my strong holding.

On the other hand, I would truly be sick if he capped 6th street, which he would probably do with anything that beats my hand. But what is the likelihood of that? Isn't it textbook to wait until 6th to raise with two pair to make sure that a possible bigger pair doesn't make an open pair? If we suppose he will raise with two pair, trips, a straight, and a few semibluffs thrown in, can we analyze the situation a little more?

Perhaps a solution would be to just call the raise and then either bet out or check/raise the river. One thing that appeals to me about check/raising the river is that is unlikely to 3-bet no matter what he has (notice I could have hit a heart flush, for example). And we all know that few players make big laydowns to river check/raises, even top players like Ted.
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