Re: 25NL 200bb deep- Flop nuts, board Pairs
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i was thinking of raising turn, but my spidey sense went off. i knew if i raised the turn i would've been going broke (perhaps mistakenly), i sometimes don't have a fold button.
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Even with 200+ hands on Villain, it's hard to get into his head on a board like this one that comes up so infrequently. I mean, it's possible he has Jx and is making the ultra-popular turn donkbet on a board that just paired, with the ideas of maybe getting you to fold and also setting the price on his draw (or trying to set the price on his weak make hand like 8x if that's all he's got).
Also, of course, he could have put you on a possible straight when you raised the flop and could be looking to bet/3-bet the turn now that he boated up.
The river push is irritating to face because, for instance, Jx just got there and it's possible he's playing his own hand. Or it could be a frustration push from 9x. But your fold does look sensible to me. I mean, unless Villain realizes you're capable of folding JT or QJ, the main justification for his river push is that he has a boat and hopes that you either flopped or just made a straight.
Anyway, though, you have played over 200 hands with Villain, and sometimes you just have to go by feel, like you did on the turn and river.
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