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Old 11-16-2007, 10:43 AM
yapee yapee is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 101
Default Re: i feel dumb how will u play that

I think his pf range for 3betting is like AK, QQ+ if he's "very tight". So he can have:

QQ - 3 combos
KK - 6 combos
AK - 8 combos
AA - 1 combo

So: 50% of the time (QQ, KK) he folds and you win $34,5.
The other 50% you're an almost 10% dog to win.
<Does some calculations on a piece of paper>

Overall the play nets you some -$2,5 per hand. But that's assuming he raises here with QQ, KK as often as he does with AK and AA, which I don't think is true (so the probability of him having the two hands you beat should be decreased).

It would be nice if he'd call with the hands you beat, but that probably won't happen as your hand is nowhere near underrepped.

<Just did more calculations on paper>
If we judge the probability of him having QQ, KK here when he c/r for 45% the play nets -$6 or so - you'd have to have a sick read to even assume this is marginally -EV, not to mention +EV.