[cowpig]

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obviously calling, and while that's a bad result in a vacuum, it has some pretty solid benefits:


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Against what range could it possibly be correct to get in 200bbs w/ a gutter and 8 high flush draw here, on a paired board? Getting in your stack here would be real bad.


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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.301% 58.92% 00.38% 48997 318.00 { JJ-99, 66, 44, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, A6s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, T6s, 9c7c, 96s, 86s, 64s+, A6o, 86o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 1: 40.699% 40.32% 00.38% 33527 318.00 { 8c5c }

not that bad, and I don't know if he's 4betting all these hands, considering he's not going to put us on a draw, and obviously doesn't expect us to fold anything we're raising for value. The hands that he is least likely to shove are the ones that are especially bad for us:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.717% 68.99% 02.73% 683 27.00 { 9c7c }
Hand 1: 28.283% 25.56% 02.73% 253 27.00 { 8c5c }

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a) we get a good idea of the kinds of hands he's willing to stack off with on this flop, and he's going to respond to flop 3bets

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No, we really don't. We get an idea of 1 hand he will 4bet shove w/ on 466...


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If he calls, it's great for us, and we can probably get to showdown in those cases. And I think having an idea of how light he wants to stack off for 200bbs on this kind of flop is worth more than you are giving it credit for.


Anyway, 3betting is clearly not the best play, but I think it's a pretty interesting idea

edit: also, if we make a very small, even min-3bet, I think it puts a similar amount of pressure on him, increases the chance he calls, and makes it tougher for him to 4-bet shove