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Old 07-09-2007, 07:42 PM
kflip kflip is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 48
Default Re: StatMonkey: -[8.5/4.6/1.9]-

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He will be involved is so few pots he will not be a factor...

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That's exactly why I think we make the most money out of him preflop (although all comments on postflop play against him are so true). Let's enjoy some numbers:

* his VPIP is (8.5). Let's round that up to 10% of hands he sees a flop with, accounting for the few times he sees a flop by checking in the BB. This assumtion seems even high, cause it should get raised a lot preflop with him in the BB.

* our range against him maybe something like 15% at most, mainly hands that can flop big and for which our implied odds are huge.

So with this assumptions we get involved with him 10%x15%=1.5%, that's 3 hands out of 200 on average!
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