[pzhon]

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Given your formula for BR i should have 16,5bi.

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Which values did you use for c, SD, and WR? What is your confidence interval for your win rate?

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I have 10bi+ downswing every 15k hands or so ( a bit more)


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I'm skeptical. How many of these 10 buy-in downswings have you had in the past 200,000 hands? If you want to be believed, please show us a graph covering several of these downswings (and the win rate you claim). Or did you just have two such downswings that close to each other, and want to claim that such an exceptional grouping is typical? If that is really the typical spacing, then you should have observed many spacings which are much less than 15k hands, and that should be visible in the graph.
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so if i add a bit of tilt i can be "ruined" 3 times a month WOW. I dont like that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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You withdraw all of your winnings? Who said that was a good idea? You will bust out eventually if you expose yourself to a microscopic risk of ruin repeatedly. That doesn't mean you should pretend that the microscopic risk is larger than it is.

Your track record already includes your current pattern of tilting. A little bit of tilt wouldn't put you over the edge that often. A significant amount of tilt on top of your usual level would, if you are withdrawing all of your winnings for some reason, and if your 10 buy-in downswings are really as common as you say.

The security blanket you need to avoid tilting is not a rational matter. It will vary from person to person. However, recognizing that you can rebuild from a lot less than 20 buy-ins with high probability may help you to avoid tilting when you do face a bad streak.