Re: Macau 15k Hand
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Live players are obsessed with protecting their hand. I think if he has a set he almost always bets the flop since i'm not PFR and has no reason to think i'll bet for him. I also think if he has a flush that's not the nuts he's pretty damn likely to either bet flop, check raise flop, or check raise turn.
Conversely, live players are obsessed with the slow play. If he has the nuts he very well may check it all three streets, and he might perceive K high flush as basically the nuts.
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Why are you complicating things with broad assumptions about "live players?" (btw, is the definition of a "live player" someone who doesn't make his living playing internet poker?) Based on your original description of your opponent, it's a clear value-bet on the river, and if you want to simplify the hand and generally play it better, do what Waco said and keep the pot smaller.
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I have to make some broad generalizations because there's not that much history (40-50 hands?) I don't bunch all live players together, and i wouldn't call a very profitable pro a standard live player.
I'm starting to think i should go with smaller value bets and pot control in general in live.
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