[AMT]

well, two big considerations in this hand are that you have the wide calling big stack and a 2.5bb stack. being utg, you also have to push through one more player as opposed to when it folds to you on the button. If you were on the button, your profitable pushing range would probably more than double I would guess.

I think you should probably be shoving pretty tight in this spot against an insane big stack because the other players are definitely going to make thinner "value" shoves that are probably -EV and likely to put you into the money.

the factors that ICM does not consider is a) the decreasing fold equity that you will experience as a result of a diminishing stack on subsequent hands (you'll get called much looser).

b) their adjustment in ranges after you double/your ability to pwn if you double up.

This indicates that you can open up your range in respect to later considerations at this point because of how short play is and how much pwnage you can maintain over the table if you get it all in and win.

All of these are pertinent factors, but in the end I may be pushing about what ICM recommends because of how much worse shoves become with significant loosening of big stacks calling range (meaning i cant accurately estimate a range but the looser hes calling the rapid decline in EV you have on a shove.

in regards to general bubble play, theres no magic to it as every situation presents a different scenario, but always keeping in mind the stack sizes, blinds/antes and how they relate to everyones calling and pushing ranges is what will give you a good idea of when to push and fold.

I highly recommend buying an ICM based program if you dont already have one, such as sngpt, sngwiz, sngegt. running a bunch of hands will really help you gain a feel for shoving considerations, and how EV changes on the bubble vs non bubble etc... Alter stack sizes slightly, alter calling and shoving ranges, what hands lead to what decisions? what changing factors are allowing for significant changes in my EV in a seemingly close spot?

Asking yourself these questions and constantly working with one of these programs (And of course playing and learning) will really help improve your push/fold play and bubble strategy. many many many months after my first sng was played, and many thousands won, to this day myself and other mid-high buy in regular posters still work with these programs several times weekly. you cant do it enough IMO. good luck.