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My read on villain says he has TT and very possibly with some of my outs. Simulator says I'm only 46.69% so why get involved. Troll, if I repot flop and he repots then I lose in the long run. I'm new to Omaha but still only like raising as a % favourite to a made hand. Is this thinking totally off?
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[It'd be really funny if I was getting trolled here, but.....]
1. I'd say at least 10% of the time he won't have TT** exactly, more like this range (
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...mp;h4=&h5=), so overall you are probably a coinflip against his range if you just got it all in right there. Also a basic PLO concept - it's possible that the "drawing" hand is favored over the "made" hand.
2. While the best choice based on pot odds vs equity is to call, the problem with that is that if you just call and you hit your straight he might just fold and you won't lose as much money.
3. Raising. So the idea with raising (combines 1 and 2) is that you really aren't a favorite or dog, so by raising you aren't making a mistake. And by raising you could disguise your hand enough so that if a straight hits, then he is more likely to make a HUGE mistake on the turn. I'll let you do the math on how much to raise the pot, knowing that there's a very good chance that he will repot it.