Thread: Set Mining Math
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Old 11-08-2007, 02:27 PM
bravos1 bravos1 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Default Re: Set Mining Math

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a big leak that a lot of players do.

Example for 25nl:

You raise to $.85 w/ 66
Villain (25/10) reraises to $2.5 or so

You should probably fold.

Villain's remaining stack is only around 10x this bet.

Given that you only flop a set around 1/8 times, and it won't always win, even if he stacks off 100% of the time you hit you're probably barely breakeven.

In short, I'd probably call a min-raise preflop, but not a whole lot bigger. Also, if there's multi-way action this also changes things considerably.

For example:

You raise
MP re-raises (pot)
BTN calls
I typically call here, assuming everyone has ~ 100bb

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.. pretty standard on both..

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $26.60
SB: $36.95
BB: $52.55
UTG: $42.10
Hero (MP): $52.20
CO: $55.10

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $5.50</font>, BTN calls $5.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.75

-----[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $50.10
Hero (CO): $60.30
BTN: $50
SB: $78.90
BB: $42.30
UTG: $16.65

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $5.50</font>, Hero folds

Results: $3.75 Pot
BB mucked and WON $3.75 (+$2 NET)

Where should we be drawing the line though? It's easy enough to put him on a range and see mathematically what makes sense (ie +EV vs his range), but we're looking at a super early commitment threshold and a bunch of scary flops quite often.

So where do we defend here? 88+? 99+? bigger?

For use to call here, we need to have a strong enough hand to stack up vs his range and we are not calling for set-value.

Villians 3bet range is very key here.

with 66 even against a light 3-bettor, we are in bad shape.

Hand 0: 59.586% 59.37% 00.22% 31114867 115064.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 40.414% 40.19% 00.22% 21066447 115064.00 { 66 }

So we got to draw the line somewhere right? Let's give hero TT.
Very light 3-bettor:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.372% 47.62% 01.76% 13660024 503683.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 50.628% 48.87% 01.76% 14020242 503683.00 { TT }

We're flipping here and the pot is already padded a bit due to our first raise, but flops are still gonna be scary more often than not.

Villain not as light w/ 3bets.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.965% 52.42% 02.54% 41629024 2019782.50 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 45.035% 42.49% 02.54% 33743814 2019782.50 { TT }

It's already starting to go south for our hero.

Reasonably tight 3-bet villain:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.320% 56.39% 02.93% 20505867 1064175.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 40.680% 37.75% 02.93% 13727734 1064175.00 { TT }

Tighter yet...
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.885% 59.68% 00.20% 19143560 64310.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 40.115% 39.91% 00.20% 12802659 64310.00 { TT }
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