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Old 11-21-2007, 03:44 PM
Copernicus Copernicus is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
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Default Re: Mitt Romney - Michael Dukakis redux

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I thought I read exactly the opposite recently, Copernicus.

EDIT: I am completely wrong. But an economist, Justin Wolfers, is arguing that the noise levels in the data is too large to draw conclusions and those that draw conclusions either way are doing so more on ideological blinders than any analysis.

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the Pepperdine statistical analysis recently discussed in the WSJ showed something like 34,000:1 odds that their findings were statistically signifcant to the 99% confidence level (or maybe 95%). A lawyer responded with the "correlation != causation" argument, which the authors had already discussed. Their findings over a 25 year period or so was that 1 publicized execution resulted in 74 fewer murders.

another factoid in one of the blogs related to the article was that there have been exactly 0 documented cases of an innocent person being executed, defusing that argument.

Anyway, sorry to derail this into capital punishment.

Specific programs to reduce taxes and spending are what is needed, not pledges and not rants about eliminating the IRS and institution of a flat or VAT tax without clear plans for implementation and transition.
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