Re: Perverse hand
Thanks for resurrecting this. I was beginning to think nobody thought this hand was that interesting.
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You wont find many more +EV things in stud than isolating a A-door (repped strongly) with (AA)K. Playing this pot anything but heads-up is just plain masochist. You'll hardly ever find a bigger edge to isolate with, i mean, wtf man? [/well-meaning bluntness]
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I agree, but I felt that putting in a raise on Third wouldn't get the pot heads up. If I were in better relative position (acting immediately after the Ace, or if there had been no limpers prior to the Ace), or if I thought I could get anybody who had already paid anything to fold, then I would have raised as a default play and obviously been willing to three-bet and call a cap. That would have been nice. It would also be nice to have been born taller and more handsome, but I'll work with what I've got.
As it was, on Third I had a caller between the Ace and me, and two others likely willing to play. It is unlikely she actually has a pair of Aces, and if not is never going to reraise into this crowd on Third. If I raise on the end of Third street, I just make a huge multi-way pot with one dead pair that my opponents are correct to chase.
On Fourth, once it became apparent it would check through (with only the B-I left to play after me), I decided to wait until the BB street to bet so I could offer my opponents poor odds to chase. If anybody had a board that coordinated in any way, I would certainly have bet, both for value and to charge draws. In this case, I felt the pot was big enough and my opponents loose enough that I would be inviting too much action with a small bet because nobody would think anybody had much yet, and peeling is what they do in that case. I didn't want to be in a huge multi-way pot with a bunch of tied-on villains, defending one pair.
On Fifth, if seat 1 has two pair, there are very few combinations of cards seat 2 can have that would be the best hand. I have a threatening board, so a raise would be consistent with a made flush and would force-out everybody but seat 1 (and maybe seat 2), who are both vested in the hand and may think I'm fanning. It worked out better than that, in that the Ace contributed some dead money and then quit. This was my fondest hope, since she's capable of folding one pair here and I'm not sure seat 1 is. It was also obvious I would be in position on the Queens for the rest of the hand unless I improved to a hand worth leading with anyway.
I was pretty sure I had the best hand on Six and the River, and since it was finally heads-up, I just bet. If Seat 1 thought I was bluffing with a pretend flush, I could expect a call on both streets with as little as one pair, and to get raised like never, since Queens-and-fives has two outs to beat me, and a flush would know the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folded and I hold the nut K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
I agree that this is a hand I would prefer to get heads-up early on, but I was convinced I wouldn't be able to. The stud literature is full of advice on how to play hands heads-up, but when faced with a hand that looks like it's headed into a crowd, we are forced to invent strategies on the fly, and this is what I came up with.
The best observation you made (and the one that makes me wonder if I blew it) is this one:
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okay, so you let seat 1 pay his $8 on 3rd, NOW (repeat NOW, 4th) is the time to get him the [censored] out. even if you only stacked up even-money with the A-door, you should bet here. insofar as you crush both of them and have in your window, i simply cannot see how you will make up this lost $EV on later streets.
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Given my image, I should probably have been willing to put a bet on Fourth on the slim chance that somebody would fold. My reservations are that I didn't figure to lose anybody, and I was probably a money dog 4-ways if anybody has better than one pair already. My hand isn't that strong with a dead ten, no good backdoor draw and at least one Ace out.
I posted this hand because it seemed weird while I was playing it, and I'm still trying to figure out if my line was reasonable or just plain bad. I appreciate the discussion.
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