[Jouster777]

Really great post Goofyballer. I am no math-head but I wanted to work on this part a bit:

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So, a question from me to all you math-heads: How do you combine these preflop odds with the odds of hitting your hand postflop to figure out the implied odds required to call with SCs preflop?

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I used the 5/10 rule in the set mining situation as a benchmark to what % of villain’s stack we should expect to capture (on average) when we flop a big made hand. We will flop a set = 11.8%, and need to call less than 7.5% of avg. villain’s stack/avg. situation to merit a call. If this is a EV neutral situation then: EV=0=.118*(.075S+I)-.882*(0.075S)
Where S=effective stack size, I = implied money to be added to pot
This leads to: I=.49S…so our expectation when we hit a set is to capture 50% of villain’s stack

There are caveats below but I’ve tried to apply this benchmark to the situations that Goofyballer worked out:
1. you have a 5.6% chance of flopping big made hand, ~90+% equity => Expectation 50% of effective stack
2. you have a ~7% chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw, ~50% equity => Expectation 20% of effective stack
3. you have a ~13% chance of flopping a standard OESD or FD, ~35% equity => Expectation 5% of effective stack

If you accept these estimates then our EV calculation becomes:
EV = .056*.5S+.07*.2S+.13*.05S-.75B = 0
Where B = size of preflop bet to be called

.028s+.014s+.0065s=.75B
B=.065S

This means that our preflop bet size should be 6.5% of the effective stack for the average situation as compared to 7.5% for PP’s. Until someone tears apart my estimates, I will use a 4/8 rule for SCs instead of the 5/10 rule for PP’s.


Should these caveats further alter the expectations estimated based on set mining?:
SC made hands are not as hidden as sets
SC made hands are usually stronger than sets
Subtract a bit for draws on bad boards (maddog)