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Old 07-29-2007, 04:59 PM
HOWMANY HOWMANY is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,322
Default Re: the real story

Well when someone like you coldcalls preflop I automatically think you have exactly 77-99, but his flop+turn play makes me think he would be coldcalling sooted broadways. I am leaning away from big clubs with a Q because it would make sense to raise the flop when he has a realistic chance of having tons of outs, not on the turn when he hits after the other two of you have put a lot of action. If he had 88 then I think he needs to get aggressive on this flop because he doesn't want his customer to get scared on many different turn cards. So a set makes no sense. Broadway clubs with a Q don't make sense. So he must have one of the other three JTs combos I think.

Your only play can be to call and hope the board pairs and also hope the passive guy doesn't have QQ. I really hate folding the river UI because the pot is so big, so I probably sit there for 30 seconds knowing I'm about to make a bad call before finally convincing myself I could see 88 or a really weird AA.

A lot of what to do really depends on what you think Surf is coldcalling with. IMO coldcalling with sooted broadways here is pretty bad RIO. I don't think 77-99 are quite as bad in terms of getting there and getting pounded, but you will still spend a bet or so postflop before finding out you are not best. I personally think the vast majority of hands he is likely to choose to get involved with here are not worth playing. If everything I said above is off and he is coldcalling with like AQ/TT only then ignore me. I never coldcall without callers between so I can't really speak from experience.

BTW if you check/3bet the turn then I think his 4betting range needs to be JT and that's it. I think coldcalling with QQ preflop is awful so I'll pretend he can't have that.

Also for your hand I think the best play is to cap the flop and then c/r safe turn cards but perhaps your cap will be seen as too strong and the play would be better for someone with a crackfiend type image. If you don't think you can get away with cap and then c/r the best play is to cap and keep betting until someone tells you that your hand is not best.
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