[jstill]

I actually think theres a fairly significant difference between making this thin value bet when u have Ac5x vs the non club Ax5x, theres twice as many combos of ace high hands that could have called looking for the 4 flush that mite pay off now when u dont have it. That difference could certainly be the difference between the bet being +EV (good 50% of the time ur called or more) or not.

Other than that it kind of comes down to recent metagame (u having bluffed recently or value betting a ton and him not showing down, or him tilting are all obviously better), his image of u (if he thinks very solid and he could pretty much always fold A hi here or 22 to ur 3rd barrel safely id pass up the marginal bet when u have the Ac), and his tendencies in this exact spot (blind battle where u 3bet preflop and he didnt cap). I think to say a 25/20 will auto cr the flop here with 6x is a bit hasty, those are pretty much my stats and while thats generally true of me in say a BB vs Button on CO steal its not necessarily true when uve shown more strength like this preflop.

Again its hard to imagine ur beat by alot (since 99+ probably value caps if ur 3betting most pairs, and Qx hands probably donk or cr the turn, or bet the river) but it depends what he can get to the river with that are worse (less when u have the Ac, altho I think 22-44 always see the river since u could be betting A hi no club for value/ a freeshowdown on the turn) and how often he ll feel compelled to show them down here vs u in a blind battle.

I think making thin value bets is good in general and makes people play worse against u for a couple of reasons (they cant peel the turn as liberally expecting u to check behind often, or call to fold UI since u wouldnt vb a worse hand than TP on the river in position, and generally just feel as though they are getting run over if they dont see ur cards so they make worse calls/ plays later on), but I think this spot is somewhat close/ dependent upon ur feel against villain. But Id always bet Ac8 or 77 here, so with Ac5 here is enough of his range that calls or raises worse hands? maybe i duno its close, I think id check behind if i thought he thought he could easily fold A hi here when u bet again or underpairs if u have a narrow 3betting range here preflop (that Q pretty much hit any unpaired hands ud 3bet preflop that arent A hi im guessing correct? and ud never bet A hi UI in position on the river?).