Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
I'm going to give us 5 outs on the flop, to represent the chance he has better than a pair. 5 outs*2 = 10%
i'm assuming if we make a pair of kings or better we stack him.
i'm assuming we check the turn and we check back if we can.
i'm assuming we are behind.
i am assuming we don't usually have odds to call if he shoves turn.
our equity on the flop call is:
equity if we only see turn + implied equity + equity if we see river for free * chance we see the river for free = EV on the call.
equity if we only see turn: 0.1($39.50) - $7 = -$3.05
implied equity: 0.11*$11 = +$1.1
equity if we see the river for free = 0.1($39.5) = +$3.95
chance we see the river for free = ???
solving at EV = 0 to find the chance we see the river for free (x) to have a breakeven call:
-3.05 + 1.1 + x(3.95) = 0
1.95 = -x(3.95)
1.95/3.95 = -x = 0.49
i've messed up a - somewhere but don't sweat it.
we need him to check the turn >50% of the time to have a +EV call on the flop.
i vote that he checks turn less than a third of the time here.
edit: hmm i should probably have a chance we only see the turn = 1 - chance we see river term in there. that gives a different answer and makes a call more likely to be good. i wll correct later.
|