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Old 10-20-2007, 10:02 PM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: New Orleans
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Default Re: Bet sizing in multiway pot

Interesting hand because you're almost certainly good here (and you should get stacked if someone flopped a higher straight because of all the other callers), yet there are a lot of bad river cards which will either beat you or keep you from getting any more value if you are still good.

My intuition is that pushing can't be that bad (i.e. not that far from optimal). First, getting good draws to fold is not a horrible result, and in a live game there's a good chance you'll get a bad call from Ahxh and some straight draws (especially those that have also paired the board). Second, you might get a fantastic result by folding out the draws which know they are behind, but get a call from a hand drawing slim (like 87) or dead (perhaps an awfully played AQ).

The way I think about it is this: Would I overbet push here with air figuring that I could only get called by a straight and that most straights would have played more aggressively on the flop because of the heart draw? In most live games I wouldn't because I would expect to get called by a lot of weak hands including draws, so it would be silly to put overbet all-in with a hand that can't even beat a busted draw that calls. But if that's the case, then overbet pushing for value seems like a nice variation play, and a nice spot to do it is a situation like this, where it will be a bit awkward to get value on the river fairly frequently and your hand is still vulnerable (so "good folds" are less costly than if you had, say, Th 9h).
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