[Alchemist]

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#8.

20/40 Stud/8, 5 handed

I have no useful read on Villain except that she seems solid. She's played about 4 hands when this comes up.

I bring in for $5 with (A8) 2, 2 diamonds.

Action folds around to the last player to act, who has (XX) A. She calls $5. Pot is $21.

4th:
Hero (A8) 26 -- calls
Villain (XX) AT -- bets

5th:
Hero (A8) 269, 3 diamonds
Villain (XX) ATT

Villain bets, I fold.

I made these presumptions about the hand. Can you tell me whether they were wrong, and why?

a. She didn't raise on 3rd because she wants me to catch up just a bit so that she can bust my low. She's leading me in to give her hand more value. (Or, she played it weak.)

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Not completing with the Ace in steal position is just odd. If she's got a strong high hand then the last thing she wants is for you to catch up and take away half the pot.

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b. I can put her on aces up or 3 10s a whole lot of the time.

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She wouldn't complete 3rd with split Aces? I suspect her range is much wider. Maybe she has a small pair or a 3-flush?
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c. In any event, I'm behind even the pair of 10s and I'm drawing to half.
d. Without a viable way to win high, I can't continue. The pot is too small.
e. The call on 4th was kind of loose. (How often would you call 4th here?)

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I always call 4th street here with a live 4-card low vs a high hand. 16 cards on 5th make your low and almost certainly lock up half the pot for you. Catching an Ace or 8 are also good cards and if nothing else may force her to slow down fearing a freeroll, especially if she doesn't have two pair+.

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f. What if instead the action was:

Hero: (A8) 2, 2 diamonds -- BI -- calls
Villain: (XX) A. bets

Pot is $61.

4th:
Hero (A8) 26, 3 diamonds -- ???
Villain (XX) AT -- bets

Now I've caught "perfectly" and I'm still only drawing to 1/2. I'd need 2 diamonds or some other craziness in 3 cards to even beat a pair.

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Run a few sims. Even if she has a pair of Aces, you are even money at worst! You have up to 16 outs 3 times to make a low (granted you won't call 5th and 6th if you brick both) which will ensure half most of the time and you'll make a flush about 11% of the time. Folding this hand on 4th would be crazy. Definitely at least call, maybe even raise.

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I can't imagine that villain is bluffing after catching a 10 on 4th. (Can I?)

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She absolutely could be bluffing. Since you're the BI you have a completely random hand from her POV. Since you caught what could be a good card, she wants to get you out or at least make you pay to draw. But again, why she woudn't just complete 3rd and be done with it is beyond me.

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Is this why this kind of hand is subpremium? How often do you muck this on 3rd? Would it be the right play to fold 4th?

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It's subpremium because the 8 sucks bigtime even though it's hidden. There are some redeeming qualities in holding the Ace but I'm usually folding this if I find there's another low draw involved in the hand. If I'm in against 2+ high hands I'll play any 3-card low if I'm the only one going that way.