so I feel like I've been finding this recurring situation where there's $$ to be won (at least at microstakes). Specifically:
when headsup on the river in position, if villain bets and we raise he's really unlikely to reraise (or shove) as a pure bluff.
Given that we can look at bet/shoves on the river as big hands almost uniformly across lots and lots of player types - this gives us the opportunity to squeeze some value from more marginal hands all limit-styled and whatnot.
an ex:
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $6.50
UTG+1: $20.35
CO: $13.45
Guruman: $34.55
SB: $18.70
BB: $25
Pre-flop: (
6 players) Guruman is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks,
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $1</font>, SB calls,
2 folds.
so I raise with an ok pf hand and position trying to get hu or pick up the extra posted blind. I also raise alot, so there's that. When sb calls I'm thinking that he's got the standard speculative range of pp, AXs and some suited connectors.
Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (
$2.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman bets $1.75</font>, SB calls.
standard cont bet on a toughish to hit flop. villain makes a strong but passive play by calling a big bet there. At this point I have to think that he's either got some of the flush draw, a pp, and occasinoally he's slowplaying a set. I haven't seen this guy float air yet, and while that's a possiblity I'll discount that pretty heavily on this board given the pf action.
Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (
$6, 2 players)
SB checks, Guruman checks.
On the turn I picked up a weak flush draw and villain checks again. Having just re-checked the NLHTandP ref on when you should be more likely to semibluff when your draw has less value (either in pure equity or implied villain calling mistakes), and less likely to semibluff when the draw itself holds more value (ditto). Given the weakness of my draw I should have put another bet in there on the turn to try to push villain off of a pp or random split pair instead of checking the way that I did. I checked because I put his range on a lot of showdown-worthy hands and draws that didnt want to go anywhere. Because of that I felt like I'd have to risk too much to buy a fold here. Again, I now think that was wrong.
River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (
$6, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $4</font>, SB calls.
given the turn action, I was in an interesting situation on the river. I induced a bluff, so I was likely to get bet at by any made flush, Qx, and better, and of course some pure bluffs. I think villain's line is crap almost no matter what he has because there's not enough value in there and there's no fold equity either.
when he leads for such a small amount after I induce I'm super inclined to raise it up lightly here for a few reasons:
-I don't think he'll ever re-raise as a pure bluff - therefore I'm not afraid to re-open the betting (because I"m comfortable folding)
-along the same lines, I can raise an amount that doesn't commit my stack
-I its really unlikely he'll make this kind of bet with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
-I think it
is likely that he'll have a weaker flush or some other hand that's trying to price its way to showdown, and lots of these hands will call moderate raises.
-I'm unlikely to 'accidentally' value-raise a second-best hand. This will be the case if villain holds the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but really that's it.
[/ QUOTE ]
really the crux of the whole thing is based on the fact that I believe villain absolutely
will not bet/reraise as a pure bluff in this situation. Its just too complex, and too risky in most spots. Very good players are capable of these things, but I'd honestly need that read as opposed to the opposite as a default.
There end up being lots of situations in position on the river where its worth re-opening the betting on the river to squeeze a little more value in. Any time stacks are deep, ranges are still wideish, and pots are small we can find spots to drop in a few light valueraises. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]