Re: KJs in the BB
I'm leading that turn. Having this checked behind by QQ would be a disaster with all the draws out there. I know he's a TAG and as such he's likely to bet but I still dont' want to risk it. The pot is huge and a bet clearly gives me the best chance to win it.
If villain raises I'm go into calldown mode no matter what SB does. If SB c/3balls I can fold the river UI, methinks. If villain and SB both just call I'm leading anything but a Q, A or heart river. If SB folds and river is a heart, Clarkmeister Theorem FTW.
Tag's hand could possibly be really interesting. His range is pretty narrow. JJ+, AThh+, AJ I guess, so you've got him crushed. If I'm doing my math right, and I like to think I am with my paper and pen, I get this:
4 combos where hero is behind; in all of them he has two outs or less
6 combos where villain has 8 outs or better
22 combos where villain has 3 outs or less
When I have that kind of edge I don't want to get fancy. For the majority of villains range that K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a pretty bad card. Make sure you give yourself a chance to get two bets in with a huge edge.
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