[Mendacious]

Great hand to post! This is the type of hand where if I am thinking clearly, I fold on the turn. I think you should have taken the lead or played back before then, however.

Although I probably call the river bet far too often, (especially this month when it seems I am playing from behind far too often). But, this is definitely a situation where your head should be telling you you are calling "hoping" to get half, and more likely to get scooped than you are to scoop.

Out of curiousity, how would you rate your chances to get half, to scoop, or to get scooped?

Let's say you get half 70% get scooped 20%, and scoop 10%.
What does the math tell you to do here?

In my estimation, using those figures you come out way ahead. Like almost + $100. (By that, I mean you get your share of the money that you put in back) However, that is still a crappy position to be in, which is why you don't want to be there.

Also,what do you make of the fact that villian did not put you all-in?

So, I think what you need to ask yourself on a hand like this in NL is: 1) what are my chances to scoop at showdown; 2) How likely are those chances to improve or worsen along the way; and 3) What are the chances I can win this hand by betting.

The way I see it, 1) you are not much better than 50/50 to scoop on the flop, 2) you are unlikely to improve, AND therefore 3) the only profitable way for you to play the hand is to bet, or fold.