SageStats ensign_lee
~~~
Had an up and down week last week, finishing in the red about 1 unit. Too bad my 3 unit under play on Denver/Detroit didn't come through, since Denver kept trying to score and made tons of costly mistakes in the process. Just a ridiculous amount o fpoints in the 4th quarter of that game, but oh well...stuff happens.
On to this week:
~~~
Miami Dolphins Moneyline (+125)
5 units at BetTrojan
The number moved off of 3 to 2.5, despite there being about 3 bets on Buffalo for every 1 on Miami. Plus, Miami's coming off a bye, so they'll have had extra time to prepare for this game and snap this 8 game losing streak. If they can't get it done against the Bills, well then sucks to be me. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
Atlanta Moneyline (+170)
2 units at BetTrojan
This bet was made purely because Pinny was offering Carolina moneyline at -170. Any bet that Pinny is willing to take on is one I'm willing to take on as well. Plus, with them holding +3.5 (-118) and theGreek holding +3.5 (-120) while everyone else is holding steady at +3.5 (-110), I have the sharp leans to consider as well. I'd feel better if David Carr were playing, but hey...can't have everything in your favor. For now, either an injured and under-practiced Testaverde will start, or an undrafted free agent QB will start. Either way, neither of them have been on this team long enough to have established anything resembling chemistry on the offensive side of the ball.
This is really more to fade Carolina rather than go with Atlanta.
Pittsburgh -10 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Pittsburgh just plays monstrously well at home. Cleveland has been doing well as of late, but I'm still not impressed. I think Pittsburgh is able to roll all over the Browns here, and show why they belong in the class of the AFC right along with the Pats, Colts, and (to some extent), the Chargers.
New Orleans -10 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
This is just another bet fading the Rams. When you have no offensive line, you have no way to utilize your awesome WR's or your amazing RB. You just get squished repeatedly by even the most basic defenses. Honestly, I was going to make this a much larger play, but the line movement from -13 to -10.5 (I don't really know why BetTrojan is hanging a -10, but I was happy to take it) made me quite nervous. Action is about split on this game, with a slight edge to New Orleans, so I was like "wah?!??!" That, plus Pinny has been holding the worst prices on St. Louis all week. I don't especially like going against the Pinny Lean.
Green Bay -5.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Minnesota does well against teams that try to run the ball. They don't handle the pass very well at all. Well, let's look at teh Green Bay Packers: all pass, scant runs. The weakness of the Vikings defense plays right into the strength of the Packers offense.
Now, let's look at the other half of the game: Minnesota offense vs. Packers defense. The Packers defense has been a huge reason that they've been winning this year. If you've seen them contain other teams running backs, you'll see why I believe that they're up to the task of handling Adrian Peterson. The recipe for stopping the Vikings offense is to collapse that line, kill the running lanes, and force Adrian Peterson to settle for 1 and 2 yard gains. That passing game is not going to be able to handle the full load of carrying the Vikings offense.
So therefore, Green Bay -5.5