Re: schmuck boy right but for the wrong reasons
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For many players, taxes also make it -EV, even if the casino is paying out a full 100% of the money taken for BBJ. If you pay taxes on every dollar you make in the casino anyway, this will be 0EV -- but if you only pay on a percentage (which I know none of the honest people here would ever do), then BBJ becomes -EV, since you will definitely be paying taxes when you hit.
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Yeah, and this assumes you're an advantage player who already has taxable poker income, and so gets to deduct the amounts paid into the drop as an expense (implicitly-- if you didn't have to pay them, your winnings would be higher). If you're a disadvantage player who would ordinarily have no poker-related tax liability and therefore no tax advantage from the jackpot drop, this deal looks even worse.
Similarly, the deal is also worse if the jackpot pushes you into a higher tax bracket than you would ordinarily be in.
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