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Old 09-02-2007, 11:55 AM
Parlay Slow Parlay Slow is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Proud to be Polish!
Posts: 3,869
Default Re: Venetian 5-10 Deep Set

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if 77 is viable so is 44 and two pair and it becomes a pretty obvious call.

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not many ppl stick in 450bb's on the flop with 2pr. particularly not with this specific sequence of action: weak lead into a field of players, gets called in one spot, raised strong by another, yet still 3bets all-in for NEARLY 3 TIMES THE POT. this is a set or a straight 95%+ of the time.

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Pokerstove just clarified a lot for me:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,900 games 0.005 secs 1,980,000 games/sec

Board: 4d 5h 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.929% 42.78% 01.15% 4235 114.00 { 5c5s }
Hand 1: 56.071% 54.92% 01.15% 5437 114.00 { 77, 44, 86s }

Even if we restrict his range to a set or a straight, my equity is 43.9% of 9480 = $4,162

My price to see the showdown was $4,000, so unless I'm not thinking clearly, I gained $162 in equity with that call.

Again, this assumes that he would do this with bottom set, an assumption that I am comfortable with.

It's strange: you would think that adding top and bottom set to his range would be a wash. Instead, my equity against the straight is 34.8%, but if the sets are included it is 43.9%. Any ideas why that might be?

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