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Old 11-29-2007, 09:14 AM
case3 case3 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: transpacific
Posts: 11
Default Re: 400 NL: Deep stack committed? Seems ridiculous but should I c/f ri

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He shouldn't be boat mining, as I gave him bad odds.

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Maybe his odds are not so bad to try and fill up. If you are shoving a T river then I assume you are also shoving any board pairing card.

He pays 290 to get 1180 needing to hit 24% of the time.
-TT is 20~23%
-88 is about 20%
-KT is 7~10%

These odds are enough for most players and plenty for all donks.

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He doesn't have AJ.

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Ruling out AJ for an unknown player is a clear mistake. AJ of spades has to be in his range here, as well as all other AJ's. When a player min-raises this turn with deep stacks it is often done without fear of exposing himself to a big re-raise. This is a made hand then and those are sets, the J9 chop, and AJ.

With these two points then I don't think a turn raise is automatic. Making it 400 gives him a perfect spot to bust J9 with AJ and the mistake made by trying to fill up is small.

Getting it in on the turn would only show real value if our opponent would do so with 2-pair which I think is questionable or the J9 chop and we catch a freeroll.

Taking this line you can then call river bets on paired boards to whatever amount you are comfortable with, and call or bet/fold blanks.

AS PLAYED on the river I guess I'm corrupted since I know you lost the hand(?) and I don't imagine anyone calling the turn with AJ. Anyway, on the river the pot would be 870 and villain has 318 left so if it get in a win is needed about 25%, this could be tough.

I imagine if we check the villain shoves all fulls. If we shove he calls all fulls. I don't think he shoves with a worse hand than ours if checked to, perhaps a small chance, but not enough to try and catch a bluff. If he stills has J9 here I imagine it gets checked most of the time as well. The river is fine to check and then feel sad and fold.
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