Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
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Board: 5c 4d 3h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.965% 54.16% 00.81% 21447 319.00 { 6d6h }
Hand 1: 45.035% 44.23% 00.81% 17515 319.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
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jesus i had no idea that 66 would be a favorite over that range. i thought it'd be like 70-30 against us.
i should probably play around with pokerstove or something sometimes.
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Well, it's mostly because theres so many more AK possibilities, but still, if I'm 95% sure of these hands, I dunno about pushing, since AK may not be calling another 4500 with just the perceived gut and overs. Obv, that goes MORE towards the check/shove since you win without showdown, but the hands that DO call you almost every time have you in kinda bad shape
Board: 5c 4d 3h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.687% 37.88% 00.81% 9000 192.00 { 6d6h }
Hand 1: 61.313% 60.51% 00.81% 14376 192.00 { JJ+ }
Obviously, you could work some frequency distribution to figure this all out better, but while in a vacuum I think this is a pretty =EV, high variance play, for metagame purposes and such I probably check/shove this a good % of the time.
FWIW, I can't see how he has JJ+, AK 95% of the time. I'm about the biggest nit there is and my PFRR/PSB range isn't CLOSE to this narrow. "Spewtards" could show up here with hands that have you worse off that 37/63.
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