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Old 11-12-2007, 06:06 PM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 13,859
Default Re: Assani vs the StatHeads: Evaluating NFL QBs

But I was specifically talking about Peyton's last game, since

a) it will skew some of the stats and
b) Peyton was throwing to a guys like Craphonso Thorpe with no NFL receptions.

I was simply asking for the effects of the last game on his per game averages this year. I'll now provide them. Coming into last night's game, Peyton was averaging:

257 yards, 1.75 TDs, 64.8%, .5 INTs,

That doesn't look significantly different than 06, does it? His yards and touchdowns are down, but they're virtually identical once you adjust for pass attempts.

Sure, perhaps losing Marvin Harrison will affect Peyton, and perhaps we saw that last night. But it's hard to tell since the Peyton lost Harrison AND his left tackle, AND his tight end, AND his slot wide receiver.

Anyay, here was your exact quote..

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Like I said, its a small sample size. However it would point towards Manning not being quite as good with Harrison. Obviously hes still a great QB though.

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You acknowledge it's flimsy and a small sample, yet still draw a conclusion from it. Really, the only difference has been one game, and it's hard to even place blame on that one.

But by posting it's a small sample yet drawing a conclusion you're doing two things:

1) Asserting that you're right, even if your conclusion is invalid
2) Giving yourself an out to back out of that statement if your conclusion is invalid.

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Ugh....look dude, I've come into this debate with an open mind to learn and I've asked others to do the same....obviously its hard to decipher "tone" on a message board, but it really sounds to me like you just want to prove yourself right and not look to truly find the best evaluation methods...I honestly have no desire to do that. If you want to "win" this argument, then fine- I concece, you win.

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I'm just trying to pinpoint what exactly you're arguing. Your TEN/HOU example was misleading. You called the game a "total shootout," and ignored the fact that the game was 32-7 after 3 quarters. I asked if the offensive gameplan led to Tennessee giving up 29 points in one quarter, and you knew it would be ridiculous to say yes so you didn't.

Now why did you post the example in the first place? On its face it sounds good, but when you even half-way look at it, the example falls flat on its face. Despite changing the gameplan from a ball control, no risk offense, the Tennesse Titans held the ball for 34 of the first 45 minutes.

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To further my point about gameplan....

If I asked the "stat heads" what were VY's best games this season, they would probably say the Indy and N.O. games in which VY put up a 95.3 and 97.5 QB rating, 3 TDs, and only 1 INT. Do you think its a total coincidence that N.O. and Indy have high powered offenses and the Titans probably knew coming into those games that they'd have to open up their offense a bit to keep up? I don't.

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In the Indianapolis game, the Titans fell behind early. However, in their first drive, with the score 0-0, the Titans threw once and ran seven times. That shouldn't surprise anyone - everyone tries to run the ball on the Colts to keep Peyton off the field. The Titans started passing when they fell behind.

Meanwhile, New Orleans can't defend the pass.

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Statements like this are why I dislike the "stathead's" views so much.

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Why? Look, if Vince Young's stats suck because it's his job to play it safe, then what does it say about him when he can't do that?
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